{"F": {"ts_code": "601992.SH", "name": "金隅集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.402, "dv_ttm": 3.5461, "total_mv": 1505565.7251, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.9, 16.2, 14.9, 11.1, 10.5, 12.0], "rev_series": [1080.0, 1236.3, 1028.2, 1079.6, 1107.1, 911.1], "np_series": [28.4, 29.3, 12.1, 0.3, -5.6, -10.1], "roe_series": [4.6, 4.6, 1.9, 0.0, -0.8, -1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 814.6, "np_ttm": -16.9, "ocf_ttm": 54.0, "fcf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_yield": 13.9, "ocf_yield": 35.9, "gm_median": 12.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -5.0, "npm_median": -1.2, "roe_median": 0.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.1, "fix_assets": 432.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 0.23, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 1288.9, "debt_ebitda": 33.6, "debt_ratio": 68.9, "debt_mv": 856.1, "payout": 1250.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -21.2, "np_yoy": -45.2, "np_vol": 896.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["大宗贸易商品", 18.0], ["大宗商品贸易", 18.0], ["产品销售", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.6, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": -13.0, "ret_pivot": 10.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -24.6, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -43.2, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 26, "bondness": 91}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 1250%、股息率 3.5%、营收 3 年复合 -3.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 33.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.9%(经营现金流/市值 35.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.0%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -3% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "金隅集团:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.7个百分点。"]}}