{"F": {"ts_code": "601991.SH", "name": "大唐发电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.58, "pe_ttm": 12.4172, "pb": 2.7396, "dv_ttm": 2.6523, "total_mv": 10326744.459, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, -0.9, 7.1, 11.7, 14.9, 19.1], "rev_series": [956.1, 1034.1, 1168.3, 1224.0, 1234.7, 1212.6], "np_series": [30.4, -92.6, -4.1, 13.7, 45.1, 73.9], "roe_series": [4.4, -13.7, -0.7, 2.0, 6.0, 9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1224.8, "np_ttm": 83.2, "ocf_ttm": 375.4, "fcf_ttm": 86.3, "fcf_yield": 8.4, "ocf_yield": 36.4, "gm_median": 11.7, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.41, "gm_chg_2022": -11.4, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.9, "fix_assets": 2397.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.23, "capex_dep": 1.82, "interest_debt": 1886.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.5, "debt_ratio": 69.5, "debt_mv": 182.7, "payout": 42.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": 20.3, "np_vol": 277.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 14.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.8, "fwd_g1": -17.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力板块", 31.0], ["电力", 31.0], ["其他板块", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.7, "ret_prev2_year": 19.9, "ret_ytd": 64.3, "ret_pivot": 140.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -29.3, "ret_120": 20.1, "ret_250": 70.5, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 59.0, "pos_52w": 61.4}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 24, "hard": 100, "bondness": 65}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 83.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 12 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 70%,有息负债 1886 亿,经营现金流/市值 36.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 41%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.4%(经营现金流/市值 36.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 41%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 1.82 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 70%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -29% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "大唐发电:PE 比行业中位低 15.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}