{"F": {"ts_code": "601985.SH", "name": "中国核电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "核力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.08, "pe_ttm": 25.6569, "pb": 1.577, "dv_ttm": 1.9773, "total_mv": 18675745.9068, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 44.2, 45.6, 44.6, 42.9, 41.3], "rev_series": [522.8, 623.7, 712.9, 749.6, 772.7, 820.8], "np_series": [60.0, 80.4, 90.1, 106.2, 87.8, 93.0], "roe_series": [9.9, 11.0, 10.9, 11.8, 8.7, 8.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 795.0, "np_ttm": 72.8, "ocf_ttm": 378.6, "fcf_ttm": -474.3, "fcf_yield": -25.4, "ocf_yield": 20.3, "gm_median": 44.2, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 22.5, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 78.1, "fix_assets": 6153.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.56, "capex_dep": 4.03, "interest_debt": 4742.0, "debt_ebitda": 9.9, "debt_ratio": 70.5, "debt_mv": 253.9, "payout": 39.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": -6.3, "np_yoy": -35.7, "np_vol": 16.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 22.0, "fwd_pe2": 19.3, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["核电", 38.0], ["光伏", 5.0], ["风电", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.1, "ret_prev2_year": 45.3, "ret_ytd": 7.2, "ret_pivot": -7.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": 1.3, "ret_120": 0.0, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -10.7, "vol_250": 17.7, "pos_52w": 97.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 64, "hard": 100, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.7 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 44.2%、固定资产占比 78%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 78%、毛利率 44.2% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -25.4%(经营现金流/市值 20.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 78%,资本开支/折旧 4.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -11%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 97%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 1% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "中国核电:PE 比行业中位低 2.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.4个百分点。"]}}