{"F": {"ts_code": "601969.SH", "name": "海南矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "铁矿石", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20141209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.52, "pe_ttm": 28.411, "pb": 2.6562, "dv_ttm": 1.157, "total_mv": 1889252.8536, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.0, 48.5, 28.6, 31.5, 34.8, 25.9], "rev_series": [27.6, 41.2, 48.3, 46.8, 40.7, 44.2], "np_series": [1.4, 8.7, 6.2, 6.3, 7.1, 4.3], "roe_series": [3.6, 18.2, 10.3, 9.6, 10.3, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.2, "np_ttm": 6.6, "ocf_ttm": 13.7, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 31.5, "gm_std": 7.9, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 7.6, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 41.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 1.03, "interest_debt": 44.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 23.6, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": -11.2, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": 83.4, "np_vol": 211.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 17.7, "fwd_pe2": 16.3, "fwd_g1": 61.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 31.0], ["油气开采", 15.0], ["油气", 15.0], ["锂资源采选、加工与销售", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 71.0, "ret_prev2_year": 9.9, "ret_ytd": -19.3, "ret_pivot": 79.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.8, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": -29.4, "ret_250": 12.7, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 53.5, "pos_52w": 67.0}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 53, "hard": 44, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.4 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 5% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "海南矿业:PE 比行业中位低 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.7个百分点。"]}}