{"F": {"ts_code": "601968.SH", "name": "宝钢包装", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "金属包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.64, "pe_ttm": 25.8321, "pb": 1.2992, "dv_ttm": 1.5982, "total_mv": 591961.688, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.6, 9.5, 8.0, 9.0, 8.1, 7.6], "rev_series": [57.9, 69.7, 85.4, 77.6, 83.2, 87.8], "np_series": [1.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.2, 1.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [6.8, 9.1, 7.3, 5.7, 4.1, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.2, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -7.3, "fcf_yield": -12.4, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 8.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 3.1, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.8, "fix_assets": 45.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 9.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 15.3, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": -11.2, "rev_yoy": 19.7, "np_yoy": 40.4, "np_vol": 33.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 19.7, "fwd_pe2": 16.0, "fwd_g1": 31.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.86, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["金属饮料罐", 49.0], ["包装彩印铁", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": -0.8, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 7.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": 9.4, "ret_120": -17.1, "ret_250": -12.4, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 31.2, "pos_52w": 73.8}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 41, "hard": 72, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.1%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 9% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "宝钢包装:PE 比行业中位低 13.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点。"]}}