{"F": {"ts_code": "601966.SH", "name": "玲珑轮胎", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.75, "pe_ttm": 25.546, "pb": 0.6982, "dv_ttm": 2.0186, "total_mv": 1573265.4025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 17.3, 13.6, 21.0, 22.1, 17.0], "rev_series": [183.8, 185.8, 170.1, 201.7, 220.6, 246.4], "np_series": [22.2, 7.9, 2.9, 13.9, 17.5, 13.7], "roe_series": [16.1, 4.8, 1.6, 6.9, 8.2, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 255.6, "np_ttm": 6.2, "ocf_ttm": 32.6, "fcf_ttm": 21.4, "fcf_yield": 13.6, "ocf_yield": 20.7, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -14.3, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.8, "fix_assets": 265.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.7, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 130.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 82.9, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": 67.4, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": -88.1, "np_vol": 166.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 15.1, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 0.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["轮胎业务-大陆及香港天成", 25.0], ["轮胎业务-大陆及中国香港天成", 25.0], ["轮胎业务-海外地区", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -3.0, "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_pivot": -31.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -27.3, "ret_250": -30.2, "mdd_250": -35.5, "vol_250": 19.9, "pos_52w": 68.1}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 41, "hard": 92, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.6%(经营现金流/市值 20.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.5 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -8% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "玲珑轮胎:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 32.3个百分点。"]}}