{"F": {"ts_code": "601965.SH", "name": "中国汽研", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车服务", "sw3": "汽车综合服务", "ind": "汽车服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.05, "pe_ttm": 13.0884, "pb": 1.7551, "dv_ttm": 2.4202, "total_mv": 1408721.002, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 33.4, 44.1, 43.0, 44.5, 45.9], "rev_series": [34.2, 38.4, 32.9, 40.1, 47.0, 49.7], "np_series": [5.6, 6.9, 6.9, 8.3, 9.1, 10.6], "roe_series": [11.5, 13.1, 12.1, 13.2, 13.4, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.0, "np_ttm": 10.8, "ocf_ttm": 13.6, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 9.6, "gm_median": 44.1, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 13.3, "npm_median": 21.6, "roe_median": 13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 64.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.76, "capex_dep": 2.92, "interest_debt": 19.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 13.7, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.7, "np_cagr3": 15.3, "rev_yoy": 6.9, "np_yoy": 4.6, "np_vol": 8.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 12, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.3, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 26.0], ["汽车技术服务业务", 23.0], ["汽车技术服务业务：整车及传统零部件开发和测评业务", 16.0], ["整车及传统零部件开发和测评业务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.4, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": -9.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": 3.2, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 33.5, "pos_52w": 70.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 65, "hard": 71, "bondness": 36}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 64 亿,占总资产 44%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 44.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.6%,股息率 2.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 62%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 44%)和定价权(毛利率 44.1% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 2.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 3% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车服务」10 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 56%。", "中国汽研:PE 比行业中位低 15.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.3个百分点。"]}}