{"F": {"ts_code": "601958.SH", "name": "金钼股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钼", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080417", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.98, "pe_ttm": 19.2669, "pb": 3.2752, "dv_ttm": 1.9066, "total_mv": 6769416.0312, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 21.9, 34.8, 48.0, 40.7, 41.1], "rev_series": [75.8, 79.7, 95.3, 115.3, 135.7, 138.3], "np_series": [1.8, 4.9, 13.3, 31.0, 29.8, 31.5], "roe_series": [1.4, 4.1, 10.6, 21.8, 18.5, 17.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 147.9, "np_ttm": 35.1, "ocf_ttm": 32.9, "fcf_ttm": 29.8, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 40.7, "gm_std": 8.7, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 19.4, "npm_median": 24.4, "roe_median": 17.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.1, "fix_assets": 47.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.5, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.2, "np_cagr3": 33.2, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 78.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 16.9, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["钼矿产品", 47.0], ["金属贸易产品", 3.0], ["分部间抵销", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 63.9, "ret_prev2_year": 12.2, "ret_ytd": 38.2, "ret_pivot": 131.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.7, "ret_60": -8.0, "ret_120": -2.3, "ret_250": 47.2, "mdd_250": -35.6, "vol_250": 62.0, "pos_52w": 69.8}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 70, "hard": 31, "bondness": 33}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 26%,PE TTM 19.3 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.9 倍,PEG 1.13。", "自由现金流 29.8 亿(正),次年预期增速 15%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.7%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.3 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 47%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -8% / -2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "金钼股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}