{"F": {"ts_code": "601952.SH", "name": "苏垦农发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "粮食种植", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.32, "pe_ttm": 26.8344, "pb": 1.7851, "dv_ttm": 2.2532, "total_mv": 1284296.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 14.9, 13.4, 13.3, 14.5, 13.2], "rev_series": [86.2, 106.4, 127.3, 121.7, 109.2, 100.7], "np_series": [6.7, 7.4, 8.3, 8.2, 7.3, 5.5], "roe_series": [11.0, 12.2, 13.8, 12.7, 10.8, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 98.1, "np_ttm": 4.8, "ocf_ttm": 17.0, "fcf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_yield": 9.3, "ocf_yield": 13.3, "gm_median": 13.4, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.4, "fix_assets": 26.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.79, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 45.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.1, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 35.2, "payout": 50.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.5, "np_cagr3": -12.8, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": -32.5, "np_vol": 13.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 18.3, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["食用油", 36.0], ["农资", 31.0], ["原粮", 16.0], ["种子", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.3, "ret_prev2_year": -1.0, "ret_ytd": 3.9, "ret_pivot": 6.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.1, "ret_60": 10.4, "ret_120": -10.7, "ret_250": -3.5, "mdd_250": -30.3, "vol_250": 31.0, "pos_52w": 87.3}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 46, "hard": 28, "bondness": 61}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.8 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.3%(经营现金流/市值 13.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 10% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "苏垦农发:PE 比行业中位低 44.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}