{"F": {"ts_code": "601949.SH", "name": "中国出版", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.83, "pe_ttm": 20.9532, "pb": 1.1029, "dv_ttm": 1.7496, "total_mv": 1110013.4023, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.9, 31.8, 31.0, 31.6, 32.5, 34.8], "rev_series": [59.6, 63.0, 61.4, 63.0, 61.2, 53.3], "np_series": [7.4, 7.8, 6.5, 9.7, 6.4, 6.5], "roe_series": [10.7, 10.4, 8.2, 11.1, 6.8, 6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 51.5, "np_ttm": 5.3, "ocf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_ttm": 6.3, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.1, "fix_assets": 21.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.1, "capex_dep": 1.72, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 32.2, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": -8.6, "np_yoy": -88.4, "np_vol": 27.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["出版分部", 27.0], ["出版", 27.0], ["物资分部", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.0, "ret_prev2_year": -9.7, "ret_ytd": -8.2, "ret_pivot": 4.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.4, "ret_60": 18.3, "ret_120": -10.0, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 32.3, "pos_52w": 75.7}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 55, "hard": 21, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.0 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.0 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 18% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "中国出版:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}