{"F": {"ts_code": "601933.SH", "name": "永辉超市", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "超市", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 13.0079, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2820311.7552, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 18.7, 19.7, 21.2, 20.5, 19.8], "rev_series": [932.0, 910.6, 900.9, 786.4, 675.7, 535.1], "np_series": [17.9, -39.4, -27.6, -13.3, -14.7, -25.5], "roe_series": [9.1, -26.3, -30.5, -19.8, -28.2, -81.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 473.5, "np_ttm": -20.6, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -24.5, "fcf_yield": -8.7, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": -3.3, "roe_median": -28.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.6, "fix_assets": 34.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.01, "capex_dep": 5.7, "interest_debt": 138.3, "debt_ebitda": 183.6, "debt_ratio": 93.0, "debt_mv": 49.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -15.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -20.6, "np_yoy": 205.2, "np_vol": 134.7, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 210.7, "fwd_pe2": 50.9, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 314.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["食品用品(含服装)", 32.0], ["食品用品", 32.0], ["生鲜及加工", 30.0], ["租赁及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -26.0, "ret_prev2_year": 124.8, "ret_ytd": -32.6, "ret_pivot": 40.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 0.0, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -39.3, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 20, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -20.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 93%,有息负债 138 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 5.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 0% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "永辉超市:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}