{"F": {"ts_code": "601929.SH", "name": "吉视传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9289, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 879426.6264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.7, 33.8, 22.3, 5.7, 18.0, 11.1], "rev_series": [19.7, 20.8, 18.1, 16.0, 19.8, 19.8], "np_series": [0.6, 0.3, -4.2, -6.9, -4.6, -4.6], "roe_series": [0.9, 0.4, -6.1, -10.2, -7.8, -9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.0, "np_ttm": -4.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 5.4, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": 0.46, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": -23.6, "roe_median": -7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.8, "fix_assets": 83.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.93, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 49.5, "debt_ebitda": 10.2, "debt_ratio": 60.9, "debt_mv": 56.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 671.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.0, "ret_prev2_year": 2.7, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 113.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": -20.3, "ret_250": -28.4, "mdd_250": -65.4, "vol_250": 61.6, "pos_52w": 40.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 100, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 71%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 10.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 46%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 46%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "吉视传媒:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 44.3个百分点。"]}}