{"F": {"ts_code": "601921.SH", "name": "浙版传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210723", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.53, "pe_ttm": 13.3268, "pb": 1.1508, "dv_ttm": 4.2497, "total_mv": 1673333.3166, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 27.2, 27.8, 27.0, 27.9, 29.3], "rev_series": [98.1, 113.9, 117.8, 116.7, 111.9, 105.4], "np_series": [11.5, 13.2, 14.1, 15.1, 10.8, 12.9], "roe_series": [14.3, 12.9, 11.4, 11.6, 8.0, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 100.6, "np_ttm": 12.6, "ocf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 27.8, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 28.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 57.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": -3.1, "rev_yoy": -9.5, "np_yoy": -4.4, "np_vol": 16.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 49.0], ["发行分部", 41.0], ["出版", 14.0], ["印刷业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.7, "ret_prev2_year": 9.5, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 6.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 2.3, "ret_120": -1.8, "ret_250": -11.9, "mdd_250": -22.6, "vol_250": 21.7, "pos_52w": 87.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 55, "hard": 21, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 57%、股息率 4.2%、营收 3 年复合 -3.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.3 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "浙版传媒:PE 比行业中位低 19.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点。"]}}