{"F": {"ts_code": "601919.SH", "name": "中远海控", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.06, "pe_ttm": 9.1662, "pb": 1.049, "dv_ttm": 6.2415, "total_mv": 24520605.4818, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 42.3, 44.3, 16.4, 29.5, 20.0], "rev_series": [1712.6, 3336.9, 3910.6, 1754.5, 2338.6, 2195.0], "np_series": [99.3, 893.0, 1095.9, 238.6, 491.0, 308.7], "roe_series": [25.0, 100.9, 65.7, 12.0, 22.8, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2223.3, "np_ttm": 267.5, "ocf_ttm": 431.0, "fcf_ttm": 137.0, "fcf_yield": 5.6, "ocf_yield": 17.6, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 11.3, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 30.0, "npm_median": 23.7, "roe_median": 22.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 1699.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 1.05, "capex_dep": 3.08, "interest_debt": 711.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 41.0, "debt_mv": 29.0, "payout": 50.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -17.5, "np_cagr3": -34.4, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": -23.5, "np_vol": 324.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 45.0, "earn_yield": 10.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 8.4, "fwd_pe2": 10.8, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": -23.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["集装箱航运业务", 48.0], ["码头业务", 3.0], ["分部间抵销", -1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.4, "ret_prev2_year": 98.1, "ret_ytd": 9.0, "ret_pivot": 50.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.1, "ret_60": 16.5, "ret_120": 4.7, "ret_250": 7.5, "mdd_250": -20.4, "vol_250": 24.6, "pos_52w": 92.2}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 48, "hard": 56, "bondness": 72}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 6.2%、营收 3 年复合 -17.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.6%(经营现金流/市值 17.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 30.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.08 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.2 倍 粗算,约 45%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 16% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "中远海控:PE 比行业中位低 7.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点。"]}}