{"F": {"ts_code": "601918.SH", "name": "新集能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.48, "pe_ttm": 11.158, "pb": 1.4935, "dv_ttm": 1.6221, "total_mv": 2714887.8064, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.1, 43.0, 42.4, 39.7, 42.7, 40.0], "rev_series": [83.5, 124.9, 120.0, 128.4, 127.3, 122.8], "np_series": [8.5, 24.3, 20.6, 21.1, 23.9, 21.4], "roe_series": [13.0, 29.8, 19.8, 16.9, 16.5, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 143.6, "np_ttm": 24.3, "ocf_ttm": 37.1, "fcf_ttm": -34.3, "fcf_yield": -12.7, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": 42.4, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 5.3, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 16.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 69.8, "fix_assets": 403.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 4.17, "interest_debt": 259.8, "debt_ebitda": 4.5, "debt_ratio": 63.9, "debt_mv": 95.7, "payout": 18.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": 35.8, "np_yoy": 32.3, "np_vol": 77.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 9.0, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 11.0, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力销售", 27.0], ["电力", 27.0], ["煤炭销售", 22.0], ["煤炭", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": 43.0, "ret_ytd": 62.7, "ret_pivot": 48.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 7.9, "ret_120": 28.4, "ret_250": 64.3, "mdd_250": -24.1, "vol_250": 40.0, "pos_52w": 93.9}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 100, "bondness": 49}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 403 亿,占总资产 70%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -12.7%,股息率 1.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 55%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 70%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.7%(经营现金流/市值 13.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 70%,资本开支/折旧 4.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 64%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 8% / 28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "新集能源:PE 比行业中位低 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.3个百分点。"]}}