{"F": {"ts_code": "601908.SH", "name": "京运通", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "光伏发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.97, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0005, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 717137.0613, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 34.4, 16.2, 12.8, -14.3, 10.1], "rev_series": [40.6, 55.3, 122.0, 105.0, 45.9, 31.1], "np_series": [4.4, 8.3, 4.2, 2.4, -23.6, -14.8], "roe_series": [6.0, 9.0, 3.9, 2.1, -23.1, -17.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.5, "np_ttm": -16.6, "ocf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 15.6, "gm_stab": -0.22, "gm_chg_2022": -16.4, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.0, "fix_assets": 85.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 32.1, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 56.4, "debt_mv": 44.7, "payout": 13.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -36.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -43.5, "np_yoy": -83.3, "np_vol": 446.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力", 26.0], ["硅片", 8.0], ["硅棒", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.2, "ret_prev2_year": -33.1, "ret_ytd": -24.0, "ret_pivot": 39.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.8, "ret_60": -11.1, "ret_120": -28.8, "ret_250": -23.7, "mdd_250": -42.9, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 10, "hard": 85, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -16.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 32 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 -22%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 -22%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -11% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "京运通:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}