{"F": {"ts_code": "601900.SH", "name": "南方传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.45, "pe_ttm": 10.2941, "pb": 1.2457, "dv_ttm": 4.498, "total_mv": 1098052.7745, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 28.6, 31.4, 31.8, 33.5, 36.2], "rev_series": [69.0, 76.0, 90.5, 93.7, 91.7, 86.4], "np_series": [7.6, 8.1, 9.4, 12.8, 8.1, 10.4], "roe_series": [12.0, 11.8, 13.2, 16.9, 10.0, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 84.5, "np_ttm": 10.7, "ocf_ttm": 19.0, "fcf_ttm": 12.7, "fcf_yield": 11.5, "ocf_yield": 17.3, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 11.7, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.2, "fix_assets": 45.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.25, "capex_dep": 4.27, "interest_debt": 13.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 47.0, "debt_mv": 11.9, "payout": 47.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.6, "np_cagr3": 3.4, "rev_yoy": -4.6, "np_yoy": 5.3, "np_vol": 25.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 51.0, "earn_yield": 9.7, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 9.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.2, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.62, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["发行", 44.0], ["出版", 23.0], ["印务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.2, "ret_prev2_year": 23.5, "ret_ytd": -3.1, "ret_pivot": 8.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 12.5, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -12.2, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 32.7, "pos_52w": 78.0}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 56, "hard": 40, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 48%、股息率 4.5%、营收 3 年复合 -1.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.5%(经营现金流/市值 17.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 4.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.3 倍 粗算,约 51%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 12% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "南方传媒:PE 比行业中位低 22.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点。"]}}