{"F": {"ts_code": "601899.SH", "name": "紫金矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.35, "pe_ttm": 13.1076, "pb": 4.3908, "dv_ttm": 3.049, "total_mv": 88680033.191, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.9, 15.4, 15.7, 15.8, 20.4, 27.7], "rev_series": [1715.0, 2251.0, 2703.3, 2934.0, 3036.4, 3490.8], "np_series": [65.1, 156.7, 200.4, 211.2, 320.5, 517.8], "roe_series": [12.1, 24.6, 25.1, 21.5, 25.9, 31.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3755.5, "np_ttm": 676.6, "ocf_ttm": 1020.7, "fcf_ttm": 683.0, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 3.8, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 25.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 1621.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.31, "capex_dep": 2.36, "interest_debt": 1656.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 49.6, "debt_mv": 18.7, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.9, "np_cagr3": 37.2, "rev_yoy": 15.8, "np_yoy": 68.2, "np_vol": 46.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 10.7, "fwd_pe2": 9.1, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["冶炼产品", 76.0], ["矿产品", 72.0], ["贸易", 41.0], ["其他主营业务", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": 143.6, "ret_prev2_year": 27.3, "ret_ytd": -1.0, "ret_pivot": 129.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": 25.7, "ret_120": -4.6, "ret_250": 57.4, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 48.3, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 70, "hard": 48, "bondness": 44}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1622 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铜 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.7%,股息率 3.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 62%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 26% / -5%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "紫金矿业:PE 比行业中位低 7.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}