{"F": {"ts_code": "601898.SH", "name": "中煤能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.18, "pe_ttm": 10.9789, "pb": 1.2111, "dv_ttm": 2.5231, "total_mv": 20126651.0412, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.9, 18.2, 25.1, 25.1, 24.9, 27.5], "rev_series": [1409.6, 2311.3, 2205.8, 1929.7, 1894.0, 1480.6], "np_series": [59.0, 132.8, 182.4, 195.3, 193.2, 178.8], "roe_series": [6.0, 12.4, 14.9, 14.2, 13.1, 11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1467.6, "np_ttm": 183.3, "ocf_ttm": 319.9, "fcf_ttm": 146.6, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 15.9, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 13.2, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.5, "fix_assets": 1526.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 1.93, "interest_debt": 774.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 46.5, "debt_mv": 38.5, "payout": 28.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -12.4, "np_cagr3": -0.7, "rev_yoy": -1.8, "np_yoy": 5.8, "np_vol": 48.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 28, "fwd_pe": 10.2, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["煤炭业务", 41.0], ["煤炭业务：自产商品煤", 23.0], ["煤炭业务：买断贸易煤", 18.0], ["化工业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": 39.5, "ret_ytd": 24.2, "ret_pivot": 22.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": 30.8, "mdd_250": -37.5, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 79.3}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 70, "hard": 63, "bondness": 51}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1527 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 7.3%,股息率 2.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 54%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 15.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.0 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -6% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "中煤能源:PE 比行业中位低 14.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点。"]}}