{"F": {"ts_code": "601890.SH", "name": "亚星锚链", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.15, "pe_ttm": 24.6829, "pb": 2.2485, "dv_ttm": 1.0929, "total_mv": 877851.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 24.3, 26.0, 30.6, 31.4, 31.6], "rev_series": [11.1, 13.2, 15.2, 19.3, 19.9, 21.0], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.5, 2.4, 2.8, 3.2], "roe_series": [2.9, 3.9, 4.7, 7.1, 8.0, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": -1.0, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 3.3, "npm_median": 12.1, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.8, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 2.17, "interest_debt": 16.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 36.3, "debt_mv": 18.2, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.4, "np_cagr3": 28.7, "rev_yoy": 12.3, "np_yoy": 33.4, "np_vol": 16.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 23.8, "fwd_pe2": 20.8, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["船用链及附件", 30.0], ["系泊链", 19.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.8, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": -10.6, "ret_pivot": 42.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": -15.8, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 40.2, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 57, "hard": 17, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.7 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.6%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.7 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 10% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "亚星锚链:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}