{"F": {"ts_code": "601888.SH", "name": "中国中免", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "旅游零售Ⅱ", "sw3": "旅游零售Ⅲ", "ind": "旅游零售Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20091015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 54.6, "pe_ttm": 27.7185, "pb": 1.9746, "dv_ttm": 1.2821, "total_mv": 11344769.436, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.6, 33.7, 28.4, 31.8, 32.0, 32.8], "rev_series": [526.0, 676.8, 544.3, 675.4, 564.7, 536.9], "np_series": [61.4, 96.5, 50.3, 67.1, 42.7, 35.9], "roe_series": [29.1, 37.2, 12.9, 13.1, 7.8, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 532.0, "np_ttm": 40.9, "ocf_ttm": 59.3, "fcf_ttm": 46.1, "fcf_yield": 4.1, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 32.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -12.3, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.8, "fix_assets": 83.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 1.97, "capex_dep": 3.91, "interest_debt": 101.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 25.7, "debt_mv": 9.0, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": -10.7, "rev_yoy": -1.8, "np_yoy": 19.5, "np_vol": 40.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 31, "fwd_pe": 23.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.0, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 1.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商品贸易-免税商品", 39.0], ["免税商品销售", 39.0], ["有税商品销售", 9.0], ["商品贸易-有税商品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.2, "ret_prev2_year": -18.7, "ret_ytd": -42.0, "ret_pivot": 3.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": -20.3, "mdd_250": -47.8, "vol_250": 39.7, "pos_52w": 56.5}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 53, "hard": 16, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.7 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 3.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.7 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -25%。", "行业对照": []}}