{"F": {"ts_code": "601886.SH", "name": "江河集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "sw3": "装修装饰Ⅲ", "ind": "装修装饰Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.46, "pe_ttm": 21.0976, "pb": 2.1083, "dv_ttm": 3.7147, "total_mv": 1525020.8266, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.3, 17.2, 16.7, 17.2, 16.0, 17.2], "rev_series": [180.5, 207.9, 180.6, 209.5, 224.1, 218.5], "np_series": [9.5, -10.1, 4.9, 6.7, 6.4, 6.1], "roe_series": [11.6, -13.5, 7.7, 10.0, 8.8, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 233.3, "np_ttm": 7.2, "ocf_ttm": 18.7, "fcf_ttm": 14.5, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.7, "fix_assets": 26.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 26.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 71.1, "debt_mv": 17.2, "payout": 92.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 7.7, "rev_yoy": 15.9, "np_yoy": 34.3, "np_vol": 114.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["建筑装饰服务", 89.0], ["医疗健康服务", 5.0], ["健康医疗服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": 72.3, "ret_pivot": 289.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 62.8, "ret_60": 56.3, "ret_120": 58.0, "ret_250": 83.1, "mdd_250": -23.5, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 98.2}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 49, "hard": 14, "bondness": 72}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 93%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 6.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.1 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 83%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 63% / 56% / 58%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修装饰Ⅱ」22 家中位:PE 49.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 12.9% / 固定资产占比 8% / 分红率 28%。", "江河集团:PE 比行业中位低 28.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}