{"F": {"ts_code": "601869.SH", "name": "长飞光纤", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 378.8, "pe_ttm": 91.0987, "pb": 19.1642, "dv_ttm": 0.0779, "total_mv": 31361045.188, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 19.6, 23.5, 24.5, 27.3, 30.7], "rev_series": [82.2, 95.4, 138.3, 133.5, 122.0, 142.5], "np_series": [5.4, 7.1, 11.7, 13.0, 6.8, 8.1], "roe_series": [6.1, 7.5, 11.7, 12.1, 5.9, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 176.8, "np_ttm": 34.4, "ocf_ttm": 46.4, "fcf_ttm": 30.8, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 24.5, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.4, "fix_assets": 107.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 19.16, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 85.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 47.9, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": -11.3, "rev_yoy": 53.6, "np_yoy": 888.9, "np_vol": 36.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 42.0, "fwd_pe2": 30.1, "fwd_g1": 117.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 1.08, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光传输产品分部", 31.0], ["光传输产品", 31.0], ["光互联组件分部", 11.0], ["光互联组件", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 295.8, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": 226.4, "ret_pivot": 1624.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.9, "ret_60": -14.3, "ret_120": 56.8, "ret_250": 489.0, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 83.1, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 51, "hard": 44, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 91.1 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 489%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 83%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -14% / 57%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "长飞光纤:PE 比行业中位高 6.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点。"]}}