{"F": {"ts_code": "601868.SH", "name": "中国能建", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.48, "pe_ttm": 20.6346, "pb": 0.9271, "dv_ttm": 1.2581, "total_mv": 10971565.4336, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 13.2, 12.4, 12.6, 12.4, 12.2], "rev_series": [2699.2, 3223.2, 3663.9, 4060.3, 4367.1, 4529.3], "np_series": [46.7, 65.0, 78.1, 79.9, 84.0, 58.4], "roe_series": [7.4, 8.0, 8.0, 7.5, 7.4, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4491.5, "np_ttm": 53.2, "ocf_ttm": 14.1, "fcf_ttm": -343.2, "fcf_yield": -31.3, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 1488.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.87, "capex_dep": 5.38, "interest_debt": 3551.5, "debt_ebitda": 11.1, "debt_ratio": 77.9, "debt_mv": 323.7, "payout": 20.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.3, "np_cagr3": -9.2, "rev_yoy": -1.8, "np_yoy": -18.7, "np_vol": 23.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 16.5, "fwd_pe2": 15.4, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.36, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["工程建设业务", 36.0], ["工程建设业务：新能源及综合智慧能源", 13.0], ["投资运营业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.8, "ret_ytd": 7.0, "ret_pivot": 25.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -33.1, "ret_250": -2.3, "mdd_250": -34.8, "vol_250": 35.5, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 47, "hard": 24, "bondness": 42}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.6 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 11.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -31.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 5.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.6 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -5% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "中国能建:PE 比行业中位高 8.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.2个百分点。"]}}