{"F": {"ts_code": "601866.SH", "name": "中远海发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.44, "pe_ttm": 19.5451, "pb": 1.0209, "dv_ttm": 1.5203, "total_mv": 3204221.8397, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 29.1, 28.2, 30.6, 17.4, 19.2], "rev_series": [189.4, 371.2, 255.8, 156.4, 276.3, 252.0], "np_series": [21.3, 60.9, 39.2, 14.1, 16.9, 16.1], "roe_series": [8.8, 21.3, 12.7, 4.8, 5.7, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 265.6, "np_ttm": 16.4, "ocf_ttm": 57.9, "fcf_ttm": -47.2, "fcf_yield": -14.7, "ocf_yield": 18.1, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 9.0, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.5, "fix_assets": 551.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 3.65, "interest_debt": 1013.9, "debt_ebitda": 14.9, "debt_ratio": 77.2, "debt_mv": 316.4, "payout": 30.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.5, "np_cagr3": -25.7, "rev_yoy": 11.1, "np_yoy": 3.1, "np_vol": 87.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 53.0], ["集装箱制造", 43.0], ["集装箱租赁", 11.0], ["航运租赁", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.9, "ret_prev2_year": 14.4, "ret_ytd": -2.6, "ret_pivot": 19.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": 4.1, "ret_120": -14.2, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 28.9, "pos_52w": 75.4}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 52, "hard": 63, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.5 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 14.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -14.7%(经营现金流/市值 18.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 3.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.5 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 4% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "中远海发:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}