{"F": {"ts_code": "601865.SH", "name": "福莱特", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏辅材", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.9, "pe_ttm": 65.0687, "pb": 1.0953, "dv_ttm": 1.5045, "total_mv": 2319451.695, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [46.5, 35.5, 22.1, 21.8, 15.5, 16.9], "rev_series": [62.6, 87.1, 154.6, 215.2, 186.8, 155.7], "np_series": [16.3, 21.2, 21.2, 27.6, 10.1, 9.8], "roe_series": [27.7, 22.3, 16.4, 15.2, 4.6, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 145.0, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 28.5, "fcf_ttm": 10.3, "fcf_yield": 4.4, "ocf_yield": 12.3, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 7.1, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -24.5, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 201.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 144.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 47.6, "debt_mv": 62.1, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.2, "np_cagr3": -22.7, "rev_yoy": -13.8, "np_yoy": -239.0, "np_vol": 34.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 222.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.4, "fwd_g1": -71.0, "fwd_g2": 992.0, "peg": 0.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["光伏玻璃", 44.0], ["发电收入", 2.0], ["工程玻璃", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.6, "ret_prev2_year": -25.0, "ret_ytd": -36.2, "ret_pivot": -31.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -7.5, "ret_120": -38.3, "ret_250": -41.4, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 50.5}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 38, "hard": 77, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 65.1 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.4%(经营现金流/市值 12.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -24.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -8% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "福莱特:PE 比行业中位高 24.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.8个百分点。"]}}