{"F": {"ts_code": "601858.SH", "name": "中国科传", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.5, "pe_ttm": 36.0198, "pb": 2.9103, "dv_ttm": 1.4247, "total_mv": 1699575.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 29.9, 27.4, 26.7, 27.3, 26.7], "rev_series": [25.2, 26.3, 27.1, 28.8, 29.6, 30.1], "np_series": [4.7, 4.9, 4.7, 5.1, 4.3, 4.8], "roe_series": [11.3, 11.1, 10.0, 10.3, 8.2, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.4, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 17.6, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.8, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 2.91, "capex_dep": 2.46, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 22.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 49.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.6, "np_cagr3": 1.1, "rev_yoy": -5.8, "np_yoy": -6.4, "np_vol": 10.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["出版物进口", 25.0], ["图书类", 19.0], ["期刊类", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.9, "ret_prev2_year": -16.9, "ret_ytd": 20.5, "ret_pivot": 32.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -18.3, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -5.9, "ret_250": 5.2, "mdd_250": -43.3, "vol_250": 49.4, "pos_52w": 73.9}, "S": {"duration": 59, "pricing": 53, "hard": 6, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 36.0 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 2.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 36.0 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / 4% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "中国科传:PE 比行业中位高 3.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}