{"F": {"ts_code": "601857.SH", "name": "中国石油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20071105", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.17, "pe_ttm": 11.6113, "pb": 1.2479, "dv_ttm": 4.2077, "total_mv": 204434432.2026, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 20.8, 22.0, 23.5, 22.6, 21.6], "rev_series": [19338.4, 26143.5, 32391.7, 30110.1, 29379.8, 28644.7], "np_series": [190.0, 921.6, 1493.8, 1611.4, 1646.8, 1573.0], "roe_series": [1.6, 7.4, 11.3, 11.4, 11.1, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29418.6, "np_ttm": 1772.4, "ocf_ttm": 4367.3, "fcf_ttm": 1462.6, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 21.4, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 11.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.8, "fix_assets": 7789.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.25, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 4023.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 19.7, "payout": 52.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": 1.7, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": 22.0, "np_vol": 149.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.6, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.1, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": -0.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["炼油产品", 34.0], ["原油", 22.0], ["天然气", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.6, "ret_prev2_year": 39.6, "ret_ytd": 9.9, "ret_pivot": 53.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 10.4, "ret_120": -5.3, "ret_250": 34.6, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 86.0}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 54, "hard": 41, "bondness": 66}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 52%、股息率 4.2%、营收 3 年复合 -4.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 21.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.6 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 10% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "中国石油:PE 比行业中位低 12.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点。"]}}