{"F": {"ts_code": "601825.SH", "name": "沪农商行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "银行", "sw2": "农商行Ⅱ", "sw3": "农商行Ⅲ", "ind": "农商行Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210819", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.01, "pe_ttm": 7.0228, "pb": 0.6529, "dv_ttm": 4.828, "total_mv": 8689644.4044, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [220.4, 241.6, 256.3, 264.1, 266.4, 258.7], "np_series": [81.6, 97.0, 109.7, 121.4, 122.9, 123.1], "roe_series": [11.0, 11.3, 11.2, 11.3, 10.4, 9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 261.1, "np_ttm": 123.7, "ocf_ttm": 110.8, "fcf_ttm": 101.0, "fcf_yield": 11.6, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 47.3, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 46.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.65, "capex_dep": 1.58, "interest_debt": 1068.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 91.7, "debt_mv": 122.9, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.3, "np_cagr3": 3.9, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 0.9, "np_vol": 7.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 29.0, "earn_yield": 14.2, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 6.9, "fwd_pe2": 6.8, "fwd_g1": 1.0, "fwd_g2": 2.0, "peg": 3.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["利息净收入：利息收入", 24.0], ["产品", 17.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入：发放贷款和垫款", 14.0], ["利息净收入", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.4, "ret_prev2_year": 75.4, "ret_ytd": -0.9, "ret_pivot": 48.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 4.7, "ret_120": 4.6, "ret_250": 6.9, "mdd_250": -19.9, "vol_250": 21.7, "pos_52w": 96.4}, "S": {"duration": 16, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 64}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["沪农商行 是农商行Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 11.2%,PB 0.65倍,股息率 4.8%,分红率 34%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 14.2%(1/PE)与股息率 4.8% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.0 倍 粗算,约 29%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农商行Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 5.4 / 股息率 4.2% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 23%。", "沪农商行:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}