{"F": {"ts_code": "601816.SH", "name": "京沪高铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.9, "pe_ttm": 17.5926, "pb": 1.1444, "dv_ttm": 2.7327, "total_mv": 23973582.906, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.3, 35.8, 13.5, 45.8, 47.4, 46.9], "rev_series": [252.4, 293.0, 193.4, 406.8, 421.6, 430.6], "np_series": [32.3, 48.2, -5.8, 115.5, 127.7, 131.7], "roe_series": [1.9, 2.6, -0.3, 6.1, 6.4, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 438.9, "np_ttm": 136.3, "ocf_ttm": 216.2, "fcf_ttm": 209.8, "fcf_yield": 8.7, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 45.8, "gm_std": 12.9, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -17.8, "npm_median": 27.5, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 70.8, "fix_assets": 2080.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 496.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 20.9, "debt_mv": 20.7, "payout": 47.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 30.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.9, "np_yoy": 7.2, "np_vol": 848.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 17.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.9, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.4, "ret_prev2_year": 29.7, "ret_ytd": -3.1, "ret_pivot": -4.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.9, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -2.1, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -15.9, "vol_250": 15.8, "pos_52w": 92.9}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 52, "hard": 100, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.6 倍、股息率 2.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%、固定资产占比 71%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 71%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.7%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.8%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 71%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.6 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -16%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 93%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 0% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "京沪高铁:PE 比行业中位高 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 49.8个百分点。"]}}