{"F": {"ts_code": "601811.SH", "name": "新华文轩", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "教育出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20160808", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.49, "pe_ttm": 10.3755, "pb": 0.9255, "dv_ttm": 5.309, "total_mv": 1417683.309, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.5, 36.5, 36.8, 38.0, 36.7, 35.6], "rev_series": [90.1, 104.6, 109.3, 118.7, 123.3, 117.3], "np_series": [12.6, 13.1, 14.0, 15.8, 15.4, 15.7], "roe_series": [13.1, 12.2, 11.8, 12.4, 11.2, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 112.1, "np_ttm": 13.7, "ocf_ttm": 12.0, "fcf_ttm": 10.4, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 8.5, "gm_median": 36.7, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 22.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 48.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": 3.9, "rev_yoy": -9.4, "np_yoy": -23.6, "np_vol": 5.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 52.0, "earn_yield": 9.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 8.8, "fwd_pe2": 8.4, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 2.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 24.0], ["发行", 21.0], ["发行：一般图书", 12.0], ["发行-一般图书", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.3, "ret_prev2_year": 24.9, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": -7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.2, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": -13.2, "ret_250": -25.7, "mdd_250": -31.7, "vol_250": 27.8, "pos_52w": 71.7}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 58, "hard": 16, "bondness": 65}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 48%、股息率 5.3%、营收 3 年复合 2.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.7%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.7%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.4 倍 粗算,约 52%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "新华文轩:PE 比行业中位低 22.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}