{"F": {"ts_code": "601808.SH", "name": "中海油服", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20070928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.5, "pe_ttm": 15.3469, "pb": 1.2607, "dv_ttm": 2.26, "total_mv": 5964490.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.0, 16.4, 12.3, 15.9, 15.7, 17.4], "rev_series": [289.6, 292.0, 356.6, 441.1, 483.0, 502.8], "np_series": [27.0, 3.1, 23.5, 30.1, 31.4, 38.4], "roe_series": [7.2, 0.8, 6.1, 7.4, 7.3, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 507.5, "np_ttm": 38.9, "ocf_ttm": 103.6, "fcf_ttm": 47.8, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 17.4, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -10.8, "npm_median": 7.0, "roe_median": 7.3, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 52.4, "fix_assets": 441.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.26, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 160.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 26.8, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.1, "np_cagr3": 17.8, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 2.3, "np_vol": 267.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 67.0, "earn_yield": 6.5, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 13.3, "fwd_pe2": 12.0, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["油田技术服务", 26.0], ["钻井服务", 15.0], ["船舶服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.6, "ret_prev2_year": 6.0, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": -3.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -28.2, "ret_250": -12.8, "mdd_250": -47.1, "vol_250": 34.2, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 70, "hard": 84, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 441 亿,占总资产 52%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:油田服务 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 8.0%,股息率 2.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 67%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 52%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 17.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.3 倍 粗算,约 67%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -28%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "中海油服:PE 比行业中位低 46.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.6个百分点。"]}}