{"F": {"ts_code": "601801.SH", "name": "皖新传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.24, "pe_ttm": 16.6968, "pb": 0.8608, "dv_ttm": 5.7252, "total_mv": 1025955.9488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 20.2, 19.5, 21.4, 22.2, 24.2], "rev_series": [88.5, 101.1, 116.9, 112.4, 107.5, 80.0], "np_series": [6.1, 6.4, 7.1, 9.4, 7.0, 8.0], "roe_series": [5.9, 5.9, 6.4, 8.2, 6.1, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 72.9, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -3.4, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 21.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.8, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.86, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 26.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 38.4, "debt_mv": 25.6, "payout": 64.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.9, "np_cagr3": 4.2, "rev_yoy": -15.5, "np_yoy": -27.5, "np_vol": 18.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["教育服务分部", 34.0], ["教育服务", 34.0], ["现代物流分部", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.5, "ret_prev2_year": 12.9, "ret_ytd": -16.6, "ret_pivot": -2.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -20.5, "ret_250": -22.5, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 24.4, "pos_52w": 75.2}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 50, "hard": 11, "bondness": 84}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 65%、股息率 5.7%、营收 3 年复合 -11.9%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.7 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "皖新传媒:PE 比行业中位低 15.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点。"]}}