{"F": {"ts_code": "601800.SH", "name": "中国交建", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "基建市政工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120309", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.97, "pe_ttm": 7.7687, "pb": 0.3323, "dv_ttm": 3.2758, "total_mv": 9679630.4211, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.0, 12.5, 11.6, 12.6, 12.3, 11.4], "rev_series": [6275.9, 6856.4, 7202.7, 7586.8, 7719.4, 7311.1], "np_series": [162.1, 179.9, 191.0, 238.1, 233.8, 147.5], "roe_series": [6.8, 7.1, 7.0, 8.2, 7.6, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7272.1, "np_ttm": 124.6, "ocf_ttm": 317.7, "fcf_ttm": -23.5, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 32.8, "gm_median": 12.3, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.6, "fix_assets": 785.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.31, "capex_dep": 3.98, "interest_debt": 8119.0, "debt_ebitda": 19.7, "debt_ratio": 77.9, "debt_mv": 838.8, "payout": 42.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": -8.3, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": -23.9, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 36.0, "earn_yield": 12.9, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 6.3, "fwd_pe2": 6.1, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 2.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["工程建设", 46.0], ["其他", 3.0], ["设计及咨询服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.2, "ret_prev2_year": 46.1, "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_pivot": -12.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -3.7, "ret_120": -29.1, "ret_250": -36.7, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 18.5, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 18, "pricing": 46, "hard": 6, "bondness": 69}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 42%、股息率 3.3%、营收 3 年复合 0.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 19.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 32.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.3%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.98 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.8 倍 粗算,约 36%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -4% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "中国交建:PE 比行业中位低 3.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}