{"F": {"ts_code": "601798.SH", "name": "蓝科高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.79, "pe_ttm": 34.2078, "pb": 2.0697, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 276177.4678, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, 13.6, 13.2, 14.0, 13.3, 25.8], "rev_series": [11.8, 8.3, 8.7, 11.2, 6.8, 9.9], "np_series": [0.2, -1.7, -1.8, -1.4, -0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [1.1, -10.3, -12.1, -10.3, -7.0, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 13.6, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -7.5, "npm_median": -12.9, "roe_median": -10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.6, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.07, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 2.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 48.9, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.2, "np_yoy": 153.2, "np_vol": 439.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 43.3, "fwd_pe2": 35.4, "fwd_g1": -21.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["专用设备制造", 33.0], ["专业设备制造及检测服务收入", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.4, "ret_prev2_year": -1.6, "ret_ytd": -12.2, "ret_pivot": 53.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.9, "ret_60": 6.6, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -24.8, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 75.0}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 33, "hard": 30, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 34 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.6%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.2 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 7% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "蓝科高新:PE 比行业中位低 8.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}