{"F": {"ts_code": "601778.SH", "name": "晶科科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "光伏发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.58, "pe_ttm": 677.3629, "pb": 0.8103, "dv_ttm": 0.7778, "total_mv": 1332849.931, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.2, 41.6, 48.3, 40.4, 39.2, 41.8], "rev_series": [35.9, 36.7, 32.0, 43.7, 47.7, 39.0], "np_series": [4.8, 3.6, 2.1, 3.8, 3.2, 3.3], "roe_series": [4.9, 3.1, 1.7, 2.7, 2.1, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 31.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 26.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 20.0, "gm_median": 41.6, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.7, "fix_assets": 197.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.8, "capex_dep": 2.12, "interest_debt": 174.9, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 59.4, "debt_mv": 131.2, "payout": 31.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": 16.4, "rev_yoy": -33.9, "np_yoy": -252.8, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 89.5, "fwd_pe2": 32.5, "fwd_g1": 657.0, "fwd_g2": 175.0, "peg": 0.51, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["光伏发电业务", 40.0], ["电站滚动开发业务", 4.0], ["户用光伏电站产品及服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.6, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": -3.0, "ret_pivot": 62.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -25.9, "ret_120": -38.0, "ret_250": -17.0, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 55.3, "pos_52w": 47.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 76, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 677.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%、毛利率 41.6% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 20.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 677.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -26% / -38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "晶科科技:PE 比行业中位高 649.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点。"]}}