{"F": {"ts_code": "601777.SH", "name": "千里科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "摩托车及其他", "sw3": "摩托车", "ind": "摩托车及其他", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.07, "pe_ttm": 277.3376, "pb": 3.5331, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3648527.7807, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 16.1, 8.8, 5.9, 9.0, 10.2], "rev_series": [36.4, 39.8, 86.5, 67.7, 70.4, 100.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 1.5, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [0.9, 0.5, 1.5, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 109.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 15.8, "fcf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 9.0, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.63, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": -3.2, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.7, "fix_assets": 19.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.53, "capex_dep": 5.57, "interest_debt": 12.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 39.1, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": -18.3, "rev_yoy": 22.4, "np_yoy": 151.3, "np_vol": 90.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 269.0, "fwd_pe2": 89.7, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 200.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["乘用车及配件", 16.0], ["乘用车及其配件", 16.0], ["智能驾驶", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.0, "ret_prev2_year": 113.7, "ret_ytd": -24.1, "ret_pivot": 106.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -10.9, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -24.2, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 43.6, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 33, "hard": 11, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 277.3 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 269.0 倍,次年 89.7 倍,PEG 1.34。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.0%,稳定度 63%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 5.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 277.3 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -11% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「摩托车及其他」18 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 17.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 50%。", "千里科技:PE 比行业中位高 248.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点。"]}}