{"F": {"ts_code": "601766.SH", "name": "中国中车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "轨交设备Ⅲ", "ind": "轨交设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20080818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.25, "pe_ttm": 12.8802, "pb": 1.0164, "dv_ttm": 3.68, "total_mv": 17936790.0625, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 20.6, 21.2, 22.3, 21.4, 21.4], "rev_series": [2276.6, 2257.3, 2229.4, 2342.6, 2464.6, 2730.6], "np_series": [113.3, 103.0, 116.5, 117.1, 123.9, 131.8], "roe_series": [8.1, 7.1, 7.7, 7.4, 7.5, 7.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2849.9, "np_ttm": 139.3, "ocf_ttm": 170.4, "fcf_ttm": 81.4, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 21.4, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.5, "fix_assets": 739.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 1.23, "interest_debt": 285.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 59.7, "debt_mv": 15.9, "payout": 48.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.0, "np_cagr3": 4.2, "rev_yoy": 10.0, "np_yoy": 10.3, "np_vol": 7.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.8, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 12.6, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铁路装备", 51.0], ["新产业", 35.0], ["城轨与城市基础设施", 13.0], ["现代服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.6, "ret_prev2_year": 71.9, "ret_ytd": -6.7, "ret_pivot": -5.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 11.8, "ret_120": -0.8, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 22.3, "pos_52w": 80.0}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 51, "hard": 22, "bondness": 55}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 7.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.9 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 12% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「轨交设备Ⅱ」32 家中位:PE 26.2 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 30.0% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 49%。", "中国中车:PE 比行业中位低 13.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}