{"F": {"ts_code": "601727.SH", "name": "上海电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合电力设备商", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20081205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.63, "pe_ttm": 76.0118, "pb": 1.8615, "dv_ttm": 0.2149, "total_mv": 10303100.6208, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 14.7, 15.8, 18.5, 18.1, 17.5], "rev_series": [1365.4, 1306.8, 1169.9, 1142.2, 1154.6, 1259.6], "np_series": [37.6, -99.9, -35.7, 2.9, 7.5, 12.1], "roe_series": [5.8, -16.0, -6.3, 0.5, 1.4, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1349.8, "np_ttm": 13.6, "ocf_ttm": 122.1, "fcf_ttm": 65.8, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 11.8, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 283.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 521.8, "debt_ebitda": 6.9, "debt_ratio": 75.7, "debt_mv": 50.6, "payout": 18.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.7, "np_yoy": 18.2, "np_vol": 172.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 65.2, "fwd_pe2": 45.2, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 1.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售商品", 40.0], ["工程建造", 5.0], ["提供劳务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.2, "ret_prev2_year": 94.8, "ret_ytd": -22.9, "ret_pivot": 76.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.9, "ret_60": -6.3, "ret_120": -26.5, "ret_250": -28.1, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 37.6, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 48, "hard": 14, "bondness": 40}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 13.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 76 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 522 亿,经营现金流/市值 11.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 11.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -6% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "上海电气:PE 比行业中位高 7.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点。"]}}