{"F": {"ts_code": "601702.SH", "name": "华峰铝业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.75, "pe_ttm": 13.2293, "pb": 2.3489, "dv_ttm": 1.9048, "total_mv": 1572685.695, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 17.0, 13.9, 15.9, 16.2, 13.7], "rev_series": [40.7, 64.5, 85.4, 92.9, 108.8, 124.9], "np_series": [2.5, 5.0, 6.7, 9.0, 12.2, 12.0], "roe_series": [11.9, 17.2, 19.4, 21.8, 24.2, 20.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 129.4, "np_ttm": 11.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 9.6, "roe_median": 20.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 22.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.35, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 30.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 41.3, "debt_mv": 19.1, "payout": 24.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": 21.8, "rev_yoy": 7.6, "np_yoy": -2.3, "np_vol": 33.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铝板带箔", 97.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.8, "ret_prev2_year": 3.3, "ret_ytd": -21.9, "ret_pivot": 11.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -6.4, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 70, "hard": 32, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 13.2 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 15.9%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.2 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "华峰铝业:PE 比行业中位低 7.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点。"]}}