{"F": {"ts_code": "601699.SH", "name": "潞安环能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20060922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.5, "pe_ttm": 31.9544, "pb": 1.0537, "dv_ttm": 1.1333, "total_mv": 4935825.18, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 48.7, 55.9, 47.7, 36.9, 33.0], "rev_series": [259.7, 451.5, 543.0, 431.4, 358.5, 278.2], "np_series": [19.3, 67.1, 141.7, 79.2, 24.5, 11.2], "roe_series": [7.4, 21.7, 34.0, 16.4, 5.2, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 287.6, "np_ttm": 15.4, "ocf_ttm": 62.8, "fcf_ttm": -20.6, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": 12.7, "gm_median": 47.7, "gm_std": 8.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 22.3, "npm_median": 15.2, "roe_median": 16.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 33.2, "fix_assets": 272.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.05, "capex_dep": 4.42, "interest_debt": 61.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 41.3, "debt_mv": 12.5, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -20.0, "np_cagr3": -57.1, "rev_yoy": 6.7, "np_yoy": 31.9, "np_vol": 122.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 138.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["煤炭", 47.0], ["焦炭", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.6, "ret_prev2_year": -30.2, "ret_ytd": 42.1, "ret_pivot": 24.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": -6.5, "ret_120": 9.9, "ret_250": 20.5, "mdd_250": -28.6, "vol_250": 46.2, "pos_52w": 86.3}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 70, "hard": 53, "bondness": 48}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 272 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -4.2%,股息率 1.1%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 84%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 12.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.7%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 22.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 4.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.0 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / 10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "潞安环能:PE 比行业中位高 6.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}