{"F": {"ts_code": "601689.SH", "name": "拓普集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20150319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.82, "pe_ttm": 31.766, "pb": 3.288, "dv_ttm": 1.0694, "total_mv": 7962762.7192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.7, 19.9, 21.6, 23.0, 20.8, 19.4], "rev_series": [65.1, 114.6, 159.9, 197.0, 266.0, 295.8], "np_series": [6.3, 10.2, 17.0, 21.5, 30.0, 27.8], "roe_series": [8.3, 11.1, 15.0, 16.6, 18.0, 12.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 308.5, "np_ttm": 25.1, "ocf_ttm": 46.2, "fcf_ttm": 13.3, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 20.8, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 15.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.7, "fix_assets": 169.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 3.29, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 58.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 43.0, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 29.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 22.8, "np_cagr3": 17.8, "rev_yoy": 9.8, "np_yoy": -21.0, "np_vol": 26.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 26, "fwd_pe": 25.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.6, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 1.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["内饰功能件", 16.0], ["底盘系统", 14.0], ["减震器", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 59.8, "ret_prev2_year": -2.6, "ret_ytd": -40.3, "ret_pivot": 29.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.1, "ret_60": -25.4, "ret_120": -26.8, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 55.3}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 50, "hard": 64, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.8 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%、固定资产占比 40%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -25% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "拓普集团:PE 比行业中位高 1.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点。"]}}