{"F": {"ts_code": "601686.SH", "name": "友发集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "钢铁管材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20201204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.24, "pe_ttm": 11.5437, "pb": 1.1235, "dv_ttm": 5.5267, "total_mv": 775177.9852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.7, 2.5, 1.9, 2.9, 3.0, 3.2], "rev_series": [484.2, 668.7, 673.6, 609.2, 548.2, 506.7], "np_series": [11.4, 6.1, 3.0, 5.7, 4.2, 6.8], "roe_series": [22.9, 9.8, 4.7, 8.7, 6.3, 10.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 508.1, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": 11.2, "gm_median": 2.9, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.8, "fix_assets": 54.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.09, "capex_dep": 1.78, "interest_debt": 30.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 70.1, "debt_mv": 39.7, "payout": 74.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.1, "np_cagr3": 31.8, "rev_yoy": 0.5, "np_yoy": -2.9, "np_vol": 58.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.7, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 10.9, "fwd_pe2": 9.9, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.09, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 46.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.0, "ret_prev2_year": -7.4, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 10.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 5.2, "ret_120": -16.8, "ret_250": -10.3, "mdd_250": -28.8, "vol_250": 28.6, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 37, "hard": 33, "bondness": 83}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 75%、股息率 5.5%、营收 3 年复合 -9.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 21%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 1.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.5 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 5% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "友发集团:PE 比行业中位低 13.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 37.4个百分点。"]}}