{"F": {"ts_code": "601678.SH", "name": "滨化股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.01, "pe_ttm": 31.6521, "pb": 1.2216, "dv_ttm": 0.8071, "total_mv": 1447786.3423, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 37.3, 27.7, 17.6, 7.3, 10.3], "rev_series": [64.6, 92.7, 88.9, 73.1, 102.3, 148.4], "np_series": [5.1, 16.3, 11.8, 3.8, 2.2, 2.3], "roe_series": [7.4, 18.5, 10.9, 3.4, 1.9, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 157.4, "np_ttm": 4.6, "ocf_ttm": 24.6, "fcf_ttm": 15.6, "fcf_yield": 10.8, "ocf_yield": 17.0, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 11.1, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.3, "fix_assets": 136.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.22, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 90.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 48.6, "debt_mv": 62.8, "payout": 36.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.6, "np_cagr3": -42.4, "rev_yoy": 12.3, "np_yoy": 208.2, "np_vol": 104.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 17.8, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 78.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["C3C4化学品", 24.0], ["氯碱化学品", 20.0], ["能源", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": -9.8, "ret_ytd": 43.1, "ret_pivot": 93.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.6, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": 7.5, "ret_250": 35.1, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 78.1}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 32, "hard": 90, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.8%(经营现金流/市值 17.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.7 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 35%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -18% / 1% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "滨化股份:PE 比行业中位低 4.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}