{"F": {"ts_code": "601677.SH", "name": "明泰铝业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110919", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.65, "pe_ttm": 8.5313, "pb": 1.018, "dv_ttm": 1.892, "total_mv": 2070078.849, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.8, 12.8, 9.8, 9.5, 6.9, 7.1], "rev_series": [163.3, 246.1, 277.8, 264.4, 323.2, 351.4], "np_series": [10.7, 18.5, 16.0, 13.5, 17.5, 19.6], "roe_series": [13.6, 19.2, 14.0, 9.7, 10.6, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 392.5, "np_ttm": 24.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 9.5, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 56.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 1.3, "interest_debt": 11.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 31.7, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 11.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.1, "np_cagr3": 7.0, "rev_yoy": 24.2, "np_yoy": 49.6, "np_vol": 32.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 41.0, "earn_yield": 11.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 8.3, "fwd_pe2": 7.6, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.2, "ret_prev2_year": 7.6, "ret_ytd": 14.2, "ret_pivot": 41.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": 1.9, "ret_250": 25.4, "mdd_250": -23.1, "vol_250": 38.2, "pos_52w": 85.5}, "S": {"duration": 19, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 8.5 倍、股息率 1.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 9.5%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.5%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.30 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.5 倍 粗算,约 41%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 1% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "明泰铝业:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}