{"F": {"ts_code": "601666.SH", "name": "平煤股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "焦煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20061123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.3, "pe_ttm": 79.133, "pb": 1.0429, "dv_ttm": 0.6106, "total_mv": 2296509.543, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.6, 27.3, 34.1, 31.5, 25.7, 18.7], "rev_series": [224.0, 297.0, 360.4, 315.6, 302.8, 205.3], "np_series": [13.9, 29.2, 56.4, 40.0, 22.8, 2.3], "roe_series": [8.7, 17.5, 29.2, 16.5, 8.8, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 226.9, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 36.5, "fcf_ttm": -20.7, "fcf_yield": -9.0, "ocf_yield": 15.9, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 6.5, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 16.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 61.5, "fix_assets": 522.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.91, "capex_dep": 2.33, "interest_debt": 340.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 66.1, "debt_mv": 148.3, "payout": 62.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -17.1, "np_cagr3": -65.5, "rev_yoy": 21.3, "np_yoy": 22.8, "np_vol": 77.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 13.2, "fwd_g1": 392.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 31.0], ["洗煤分部", 22.0], ["其他洗煤", 22.0], ["混煤分部", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.6, "ret_prev2_year": -5.5, "ret_ytd": 19.1, "ret_pivot": 17.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": 3.0, "ret_250": 13.6, "mdd_250": -26.2, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 92.4}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 70, "hard": 98, "bondness": 61}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 522 亿,占总资产 62%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:焦煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -9.0%,股息率 0.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 94%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 62%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.0%(经营现金流/市值 15.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 2.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.1 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / 3%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "平煤股份:PE 比行业中位高 53.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.0个百分点。"]}}