{"F": {"ts_code": "601658.SH", "name": "邮储银行", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "银行", "sw2": "国有大型银行Ⅱ", "sw3": "国有大型银行Ⅲ", "ind": "国有大型银行Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20191210", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.42, "pe_ttm": 7.2583, "pb": 0.6221, "dv_ttm": 4.0277, "total_mv": 65091518.997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [2862.0, 3187.6, 3349.6, 3425.1, 3487.8, 3557.3], "np_series": [642.0, 761.7, 852.2, 862.7, 864.8, 874.0], "roe_series": [10.6, 10.4, 10.5, 9.7, 8.7, 8.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3687.6, "np_ttm": 896.8, "ocf_ttm": 5808.7, "fcf_ttm": 5676.6, "fcf_yield": 87.2, "ocf_yield": 89.2, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 24.9, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 605.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.54, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 2761.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 94.0, "debt_mv": 42.4, "payout": 31.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.0, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": 4.6, "np_vol": 7.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 31.0, "earn_yield": 13.8, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 7.4, "fwd_pe2": 7.2, "fwd_g1": -2.0, "fwd_g2": 4.0, "peg": 1.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["利息净收入：利息收入", 20.0], ["产品", 16.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入：发放贷款和垫款", 12.0], ["利息净收入", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.6, "ret_prev2_year": 44.1, "ret_ytd": 3.6, "ret_pivot": 26.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": 8.7, "ret_250": -10.4, "mdd_250": -22.8, "vol_250": 20.1, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 17, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 56}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["邮储银行 是国有大型银行Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 9.7%,PB 0.62倍,股息率 4.0%,分红率 31%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 13.8%(1/PE)与股息率 4.0% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 7.3 倍 粗算,约 31%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / 9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「国有大型银行Ⅱ」6 家中位:PE 8.0 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 — / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 32%。", "邮储银行:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}