{"F": {"ts_code": "601636.SH", "name": "旗滨集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻璃制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.81, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1964, "dv_ttm": 1.8586, "total_mv": 1718977.7997, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.3, 50.2, 21.2, 25.0, 15.5, 13.1], "rev_series": [96.4, 145.7, 133.1, 156.8, 156.5, 157.4], "np_series": [18.1, 42.3, 13.2, 17.5, 3.8, 6.2], "roe_series": [20.5, 37.1, 10.2, 13.4, 2.8, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 155.6, "np_ttm": -4.4, "ocf_ttm": 15.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 21.2, "gm_std": 13.3, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -16.0, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.9, "fix_assets": 206.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 143.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.8, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 83.2, "payout": 48.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.7, "np_cagr3": -22.2, "rev_yoy": -2.4, "np_yoy": -118.8, "np_vol": 80.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 29.8, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 79.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["超白光伏玻璃", 24.0], ["优质浮法玻璃", 17.0], ["节能建筑玻璃", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.7, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -0.2, "ret_pivot": 26.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -12.4, "ret_120": -13.3, "ret_250": -7.5, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 51.6, "pos_52w": 56.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 27, "hard": 93, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 57%,有息负债 143 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.2%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "旗滨集团:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.7个百分点。"]}}