{"F": {"ts_code": "601633.SH", "name": "长城汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "综合乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20110928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.94, "pe_ttm": 21.3859, "pb": 1.4722, "dv_ttm": 2.3333, "total_mv": 12816233.7318, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 16.2, 19.4, 18.7, 19.5, 18.0], "rev_series": [1033.1, 1364.0, 1373.4, 1732.1, 2022.0, 2228.2], "np_series": [53.6, 67.3, 82.7, 70.2, 126.9, 98.7], "roe_series": [9.6, 11.3, 13.0, 10.5, 17.2, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2325.9, "np_ttm": 59.9, "ocf_ttm": 415.8, "fcf_ttm": 289.5, "fcf_yield": 22.6, "ocf_yield": 32.4, "gm_median": 18.7, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 349.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 3.15, "interest_debt": 142.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 62.0, "debt_mv": 11.1, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.5, "np_cagr3": 6.1, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -61.1, "np_vol": 36.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 12.4, "fwd_pe2": 9.6, "fwd_g1": 72.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["销售汽车收入", 29.0], ["汽车", 29.0], ["零配件收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.7, "ret_prev2_year": 5.8, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": -35.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.1, "ret_60": -13.0, "ret_120": -27.9, "ret_250": -41.0, "mdd_250": -43.5, "vol_250": 22.5, "pos_52w": 57.6}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 51, "hard": 24, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.4 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 22.6%(经营现金流/市值 32.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.4 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -13% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "长城汽车:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点。"]}}