{"F": {"ts_code": "601618.SH", "name": "中国中冶", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "专业工程", "sw3": "其他专业工程", "ind": "专业工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.55, "pe_ttm": 96.1757, "pb": 0.5144, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5276362.896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 10.6, 9.6, 9.7, 9.7, 10.1], "rev_series": [4001.1, 5005.7, 5926.7, 6338.7, 5520.2, 4553.8], "np_series": [78.6, 83.7, 102.7, 86.7, 67.5, 13.2], "roe_series": [8.0, 8.2, 9.0, 6.5, 4.5, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3937.5, "np_ttm": 5.5, "ocf_ttm": 145.1, "fcf_ttm": 82.2, "fcf_yield": 15.6, "ocf_yield": 27.5, "gm_median": 9.7, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 1.8, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.6, "fix_assets": 209.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.34, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 804.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.1, "debt_mv": 152.5, "payout": 22.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.4, "np_cagr3": -49.5, "rev_yoy": -25.9, "np_yoy": -24.9, "np_vol": 35.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 9.4, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": 918.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主体业务", 34.0], ["核心业务", 11.0], ["特色业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.4, "ret_prev2_year": 10.6, "ret_ytd": -14.1, "ret_pivot": -2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": -2.3, "ret_120": -23.0, "ret_250": -26.5, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 29.1, "pos_52w": 61.6}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 45, "hard": 4, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 96.2 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%、固定资产占比 3%、资产负债率 77%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 15.6%(经营现金流/市值 27.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 96.2 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -2% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业工程」39 家中位:PE 40.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 13.6% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 38%。", "中国中冶:PE 比行业中位高 56.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}